Vlad Jr.’s improved fitness could help bat

When Vladimir Guerrero Jr. arrives in Dunedin, Fla., every spring, he tends to deliver one of many greatest storylines of the offseason with him.

Coming into 2018 and 2019, Guerrero was the following large factor, the hopes of the group resting squarely on his shoulders. In 2020, Guerrero’s health and place had been within the highlight, as he was moved to first base. This spring has carried over those self same 2020 storylines, however in a extra optimistic mild for Guerrero, who turns 22 in March.

For those who’ve checked Guerrero’s Instagram feed this winter, you’ve seen anyplace from one to at least one thousand clips of Guerrero engaged on his health, a problem that, to his credit score, he’s improved considerably. With a lot deal with that and Guerrero’s protection, although, as he campaigns to reclaim a few of his reps again at third base, it’s taken the highlight off his bat, which isn’t all that far faraway from being thought of a generational instrument when Guerrero got here up as the highest prospect in baseball.

The Blue Jays anticipate Guerrero’s improved health to improve his manufacturing on the plate, however that’s a broad thought in a sport constructed on knowledge and metrics. Let’s get a bit of extra particular by way of how, precisely, these modifications translate to Guerrero being a greater hitter.

“If you concentrate on the reps that it takes and what number of swings they’re going to take earlier than they get right into a batter’s field to grasp what is going on to occur with a bat path on the proper time to create the correct trajectory of their swing, which creates the correct trajectory on the ball, a lot of it’s concerning the athleticism which you can repeat,” basic supervisor Ross Atkins defined Friday. “The higher form that you simply’re in, the extra repeatable issues are going to be, since you’re capable of repeat them extra in your observe.”

“Repeat” is the important thing phrase right here. Late in 2019, Guerrero seemed fatigued and admitted as a lot. There have been nonetheless flashes of that violent swing, however too typically, Guerrero’s fingers and shoulders would drop, inflicting him to beat the ball into the bottom. his metrics in 2019, Guerrero’s common launch angle of 6.7 levels ranked him 369 out of 398 hitters with 100 or extra plate appearances. In 2020, that quantity dipped even decrease to 4.6 levels, putting Guerrero 325 out of 352 hitters (50+ PA).

The thought, then, is that this improved model of Guerrero ought to be capable to produce the very best model of his swing extra typically. Perhaps not 100 occasions out of 100, however at the least extra persistently than he has up to now couple of seasons.

Atkins additionally detailed the problem of evaluating hitters. It’s a chess recreation, and the pitcher all the time has the primary transfer.

“It’s so dynamic and you do not know what the hitter is pondering, however you all the time know what a pitcher is pondering,” Atkins mentioned. “You all the time know what they had been making an attempt to do, and you understand based mostly on the result. the place the catcher’s arrange, if he was making an attempt to throw a fastball down and away or if he was making an attempt to throw a backdoor slider. You all the time know, however with a hitter you don’t.”

When that occurs, together with the fingers and shoulders dropping, a few of the energy sometimes drawn from a hitter’s legs is misplaced, too. Even for those who’re sitting within the again row of the five hundred degree at Rogers Centre, nearer to the tip of the CN Tower than dwelling plate, you’ll be capable to see that Guerrero has large, robust legs. That’s the place a lot of his distinctive energy lives.

In an ideal world for the Blue Jays, Guerrero’s offseason modifications will assist him to maximise his swing not simply in camp, however all through the course of 162 video games and into the postseason. Exit velocity won’t ever be a problem for Guerrero, however that launch angle, which may be solved by a recent, constant swing, is the important thing to unlocking the ceiling of his potential.

If Guerrero can repeat his athleticism, as Atkins put it, extra typically, that can unlock some DH reps for the Blue Jays. No matter Guerrero’s cut up between first and third base, having him DH in over one-third of his video games — like he did in 2020 — isn’t superb.

“That was credit score to Rowdy [Tellez], as a result of we wished Rowdy to play and he was swinging the bat properly,” supervisor Charlie Montoyo mentioned. “He earned his means into the lineup. This yr, our lineup is fairly deep. I couldn’t inform you what number of occasions Vladdy goes to DH, as a result of the outfielders are going to should DH, too.”

That final piece is necessary, because the Blue Jays basically have 4 “beginning” outfielders in George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernández and Randal Grichuk. If catcher Alejandro Kirk cracks the roster, that’s one other bat worthy of the odd DH day, too. The Blue Jays are a greater crew if Guerrero is on the sphere daily, with the DH spot an possibility for others.

It’s nonetheless early days for Guerrero in 2021, however he’s accomplished properly with every thing in his management up thus far. There’s no magic equation to translate these bodily modifications into batting common and OPS, but when they permit Guerrero to be his true self on the plate all season lengthy, then this complete dialog will rapidly shift again what obtained us began speaking about Guerrero in 2015: his potential.